As we close out 2025, one thing is clear. Momentum is quietly rebuilding across commercial real estate.
Rates are easing. GDP is accelerating. Capital that has been sitting on the sidelines is starting to stretch, model, and move again.
At DealGround, we spend every day inside real broker workflows and real deal data. Based on what we are seeing and the macro backdrop, here is how we think 2026 sets up.
We expect 2026 to open with a much friendlier economic environment for dealmaking.
• The Fed cuts rates twice in 2026, totaling 50 basis points
• The 10-year Treasury drifts down toward 3.65% from roughly 4.15% today
• GDP growth averages a strong 3.5%, building on the 4.3% growth we saw in Q3
• Unemployment creeps above 5% as AI-driven disruption reshapes labor markets
• The US deficit narrows modestly to $1.7 trillion, calming bond markets just enough
None of this is perfect. But it is directionally positive. And direction matters.
We expect total CRE deal volume to edge higher in 2026. But once again, retail leads the way.
Based on 2025 activity, we expect retail deal volume in 2026 to show similar momentum, with growth roughly 15% year over year, well ahead of other asset classes.
Why? Supply is constrained. Replacement costs are high. And necessity-based retail continues to prove its resilience.
That said, retail growth will be uneven.
• QSR expansion continues with Domino’s, Wing Stop, McDonald’s, Jersey Mike’s, and Chipotle leading the charge
• Starbucks continues to face pressure from increasingly strong local and regional competitors
• Legacy retailers accelerate store closures, including Macy’s, Kroger, Foot Locker, Red Robin, and Land’s End
• Pharmacy closures remain a major theme in 2026, with Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid continuing to rationalize footprints
Strip centers and grocery-anchored retail remain the workhorses of the sector. High barriers to entry, durable cash flow, and annual rental growth continue to attract capital even in a cautious environment.
Industrial deal volume should increase by about 10% in 2026. Not retail-fast, but still healthy.
A notable shift we expect is the return of manufacturing reshoring. Roughly 20% of new industrial lease activity is likely to be tied to domestic manufacturing initiatives.
Data center development slows slightly as AI-related equities cool, but the overall buildout remains strong. The pace cools, not collapses.
One of our strongest convictions is around technology adoption.
As deal volume picks up and more capital comes back into the market, the difference will not be effort. It will be clarity of vision. Knowing where to look, who owns what, and how an asset actually trades before everyone else does.
PropTech adoption accelerates in 2026. Brokers who can move from discovery to discussion quickly will simply have more conversations. More looks. More shots on goal.
That is where DealGround fits in.
Those relying on scattered files, outdated lists, or disconnected tools will still get deals done. But it will take longer and require more work to uncover the same opportunities.
Aggressive brokers who can see trends early, identify owners faster, and act with confidence will control more conversations and win more assignments.
2026 is shaping up to be an exciting year for commercial real estate.
Declining rates and strong GDP growth bring investors back onto the field. Retail remains the standout. Industrial stays solid. And technology becomes a true differentiator, not a nice-to-have.
DealGround will be there to help our customers spot opportunities before they become obvious.
If you want to start 2026 ahead of the pack, now is the time.
Your data. Your deals. Your edge.
