Mapping Tenant Expansion and Trade Area Gaps

January 14, 2026
Chris Rodriguez
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What Black Rock Coffee Bar, Dutch Bros, and Zaxby’s reveal about 2026 and how to spot an expansion opportunity faster.

Over the past few weeks, QSR Magazine has published several in-depth pieces on restaurant brands with clear plans for growth in 2026 and beyond.

Three tenants stood out to me right away:

  • Black Rock Coffee Bar
  • Dutch Bros
  • Zaxby’s

These companies all had disciplined operations, improving unit economics, and a very intentional approach to expansion.

Whenever I read about a tenant signaling growth like that, I tend to do one thing:

I open DealGround to see how that growth shows up geographically and where the gaps start to appear. Once you put the data and the maps side-by-side, the opportunity becomes much easier to understand.

Black Rock Coffee Bar: Building density on the way to 1,000 stores

Black Rock Coffee Bar enters 2026 with approximately 200 locations across seven states:

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas, and Washington

The company has publicly stated a long-term goal of reaching 1,000 stores by 2035, growing at roughly 20% per year. But what’s notable isn’t just the ambition, it's the structure behind it.

Black Rock Coffee Bar has been explicit about a concentric-circle expansion strategy:

  • Strengthen existing markets first
  • Build dense regional clusters
  • Expand outward only when leadership, training, and operations can support it

The operating data supports that approach:

  • 10 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales
  • 96% customer satisfaction
    Strong visit frequency:
    • ~50% of customers visit around five times per month
    • ~25% visit 10+ times per month
  • A beverage mix that extends beyond traditional coffee, with proprietary energy drinks accounting for ~23% of beverage sales, helping drive demand outside the morning rush

This is a brand focused on repeat visits and operational consistency, two things that matter a lot when it comes to site selection.

Where the opportunity shows up

From a real estate perspective, the opportunity isn’t guessing which new state comes next.

It’s identifying:

  • Infill gaps inside existing MSAs
  • Adjacent submarkets just outside current clusters
  • Trade areas that match a drive-thru, speed-focused model but haven’t been filled yet

These are logical next moves and they show up very clearly on a map.

These are logical next moves and they show up very clearly on a map.

📍 DealGround view: Black Rock Coffee Bar US locations
📍 DealGround view: Black Rock Coffee Dallas / Ft. Worth Trade Area Gaps and Expansion Opportunity

Dutch Bros: expanding fast, but with sharper filters

Dutch Bros is already operating at national scale.

As of late 2025, the brand has:

  • 1,081 locations
  • Presence in 24 states
  • Plans to open approximately 175 new stores in 2026 (its largest annual expansion to date)
  • A longer-term target of 2,029 locations by 2029, with additional runway beyond that

Performance data explains why growth is accelerating:

  • Positive same-store sales and traffic while many peers remain flat
  • Systemwide AUV of ~$2.08 million
  • A loyalty-driven model, with ~72% of transactions tied to rewards
  • Mobile order ahead already at ~13% of sales, with meaningful room to grow
  • Expanded food offerings rolling out to increase tickets and morning frequency without slowing throughput

Dutch Bros has also shown discipline by refining its pipeline and removing sites that don’t meet updated performance thresholds and prioritizing locations that support long-term economics.

Where the opportunity shows up

On a map, Dutch Bros expansion tends to reveal:

  • New-market entries where awareness is still early
  • Suburban trade areas that support drive-thru volume plus mobile pickup
  • MSAs where competitors are present, but Dutch Bros coverage is still light or nonexistent

Those gaps often point to where expansion is coming next.

📍 DealGround view: Dutch Bros locations and expansion gaps

Zaxby’s: unlocking new markets through real estate flexibility

Zaxbys’ growth story is quieter, but instructive.

Today, the brand operates 925+ locations, historically concentrated in the Southeast. After several years of operational, digital, and cost-structure improvements, Zaxby’s is positioned to resume steady expansion.

The biggest change is the real estate strategy.

Zaxby’s now supports:

  • Six different building formats
  • Smaller, more cost-efficient prototypes
  • Inline and non-traditional options that weren’t previously viable

As a result, the brand is now focused on adding roughly 50+ new locations per year, with a realistic path to crossing 1,000+ total units very quickly.

One clear signal: Zaxby’s recently signed its first franchisee in New York, using an inline model to enter dense urban markets that were previously out of reach.

Where the opportunity shows up

Zaxbys’ next phase of growth is likely to appear:

  • Outside its historic Southeast core
  • In higher-cost or denser markets enabled by smaller formats
  • In trade areas where chicken demand is already proven, but Zaxbys coverage is thin

Those markets often look quiet,until they’re not.

The following images show Zaxby's current national footprint, their expansion plans, and the massive opportunity presented in the Dallas / Ft. Worth market - all pulled up in seconds using DealGround.

📍 DealGround view: Zaxby’s locations
📍 Zaxby's Expansion Map
📍DealGround view: Zaxby's Dallas / Ft. Worth Trade Area Gaps & ExpansionOpportunity

Turning visibility into action with DealGround

This is where the process becomes actionable.

Inside DealGround, the workflow is straightforward:

  1. Search the tenant and map the footprint
    See clusters, boundaries, and gaps instantly

  2. Identify logical whitespace
    Not random holes, but trade areas where demographics, traffic, and competition suggest expansion makes sense

  3. Layer in property and ownership data
    Find assets that fit current prototypes and haven’t traded recently

  4. Build focused outreach lists
    Turn insight into informed conversations, early and specific

Using DealGround, you could search for QSR sites (or any other single-tenant asset) with short remaining lease terms, create a target list, and send that list out for ownership researrch (to obtain name, phone, email) in a matter of moments, regardless of whether that list is 5 properties or 500 properties. That's the power of the continuity of information provided by the DealGround platform.

What used to take days of manual research now happens in minutes.

Why this matters heading into 2026

Black Rock Coffee Bar is scaling carefully with public-market discipline.
Dutch Bros is opening more stores than ever, while tightening site selection.
Zaxby’s has reworked its real estate model to access entirely new markets.

None of this is abstract.

It’s visible. It’s measurable. And it’s already happening.

The advantage isn’t predicting the future. It is seeing opportunity clearly, quickly, and acting before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

That’s the edge DealGround is built to deliver for brokers and investors.

Ready to close more deals?

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