It’s certainly not 2021 anymore. Remember the days when you could put almost any property on the market and it would garner multiple offers and sell shortly thereafter? Very few transactions required high-level expertise or advisory from brokers during the ZIRP era. The deals sold themselves. The rising tide lifted all boats. Times were good.
Every commercial real estate investor looked like a genius. If you had purchased almost any property a few years prior to the ZIRP era, the rise in value you experienced was tremendous. Owners literally profited by doing nothing other than having purchased a few years earlier.
Times have certainly changed. When the first interest rate hike happened on March 16, 2022, I knew the party was over. It was clear that further rate hikes would follow, and commercial real estate investment transactions would slow to a near halt. This was about to be the fourth downturn / major market disruption I’ve experienced in my career. Luckily, these market disruptions have never been catastrophic from an erosion of value standpoint (setting aside the recent decimation in the office sector). Sure, transacting in the very short term out of necessity or desperation would certainly result in losses. Most people didn’t need to do that and most didn’t. Based on my experience, the hypotheses I have formed while navigating market turmoil are as follows:
So where does that leave us now at the beginning of Q2 2025?
First of all, I have noticed a massive uptick in broker follow-up calls. Download a package and the calls start immediately. As a seller, that’s a good thing. You want your broker hustling.
Second, pricing is starting to adjust to prevailing market conditions. Timing from the actual market shift in Q1 2022 to the start of price discovery (market pricing equilibrium) today has been quite a bit slower (3 years) than the expected timeframes experienced in the past (18 - 24 months).
Deal velocity has dramatically changed. Transaction volume is way down across the board. How do you stand out and generate more business in an environment where other brokers are still overpricing deals and offering concessions in order to win listings? This is a constant competitive dynamic in any market but it is even more pronounced now that we are in an environment where there are fewer real opportunities to transact.
A few key thoughts:
For the last 20 years I’ve wanted a tool that could streamline some of the most time-consuming aspects of brokerage. So, my team and I built it. DealGround was specifically designed to supercharge your ability to achieve the goals outlined in 1 through 4—and thanks to recent advances in AI, that vision is now a reality.
For newer brokers, DealGround delivers instant market expertise and confidence. For experienced brokers, DealGround is an accelerator—putting property, tenant, and market data right at your fingertips—instantly.
Now, item 5 is still on you—but with items 1 through 4 handled, you'll have more time to focus on building those relationships.
Since launching our private beta, brokers have already sourced new deals and significantly reduced the time spent on research and data gathering.
We’d love for you to take a look. DealGround was built by CRE professionals, for CRE professionals—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we do.